The number of major floodings in Europe is markedly increasing in the recent years. Each time, there is a broad discussion about natural causes, the influence of human factors like infrastructure and river regulation as well as attribution of climate change. One thing is clear: Humankind is changing the landscape for centuries, the number of people occupying former flooding areas is constantly increasing. Irrespective of the degree of flooding, more people will be affected from flooding in general at some time. It’s not possible to take out humans from the equation like anthropogenic warming deniers do it regularly. There is also a natural variance of flooding events with recurring major disasters in the past, sometimes prompting to make modifications for river regulation. Apart from the situation on the ground, it is impossible to deny the increasing amounts of rain with rising intensity where climate changes steps in.
I decided to write this analysis in English as I’d like to cover quite some meteorological aspects of this event, where I need a lot of scientific terms. Moreover I want to make this analysis available for foreign readers, too.
Update, 08.11.24
The latest analysis is from ESSL:
Tomas Pucik: Meteorological analysis of extreme flash flood situation in the Valencia region (05.11.24)
Alois Holzer: Historical deadly flash floods in Spain (31.10.24)
Very similar conclusions. Interesting note: The moist boundary layer prevented the generation of strong cold pools and outflow boundary which new cell initation elsewhere. Another conducive factor for persistent backbuilding storms.
Who is to blame for Valencia flooding deaths? A weather warning expert on how the disaster unfolded (Euro News, 07.11.24)
„“Just providing numbers of rainfall totals (e.g. 400mm in 12 hours) without describing relevant impacts and possible measures to protect life and property is of little use unless one has some background in meteorology.”
Lars Lowinski, chartered meteorologist
Same problem in Lower Austria with the devastating flood in Mid September 2024.
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